Can we predict the future?

We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we can create possible scenarios. In sustainability one looks at trends such as in the ecology, economy and society to form possible images or scenarios of the future. For example one can see increasing policies supporting sustainable development, more companies to engage in sustainable production processes or at least ESG and also increasing consumer interests in such. Therefore, one could imagine that in 2050 earth will be quite sustainable, whatever that means exactly.

Can the future be predicted accuratly?

There is certain bias to it because we find daily changes, but also unexpected events that may drastically influence our imagined scenario. Such an example is Covid-19 or the Ukraine Russian war that hugely impacted and still does in terms of efforts towards sustainable development; energy transition, cooperation, peace building opportunities and unexpected emissions such as from war, also the fact that while people care, some do not and some may do differently.

Can unexpected events be accounted for?

To take these unexpected events into account wild cards can be used. Wildcards can relate to any event that can have a major impact, for example a terrorist attack, an earthquake, a pandemic, or more individual an unplanned pregnancy, a Sexual Transmitted Disease or other illnesses not accounted for etc. . These are important to take into account because as seen in the examples before, they can hugely disrupt predictions. [Can you think of more?]

Why are wildcards important?

Wildcards are important because the future is too uncertain to predict it fully, so wildcards help to think about what other scenarios could occur and how to prevent them or what could be done in the case of their occurrance. Often these can help in minimizing possible risks. One of such examples is intelligence analysis, in which possible scenarios are quickly predicted to, for example, prevent fatalities or economic shocks. However, they may and they may not include wildcards or they may be based on them.

“This is likely to happen, lets therefore implement a policy here or increase security there or pay attention to there.”

Can scenario analysis be biased?

Yes, this can happen by taking into account narrowed views, biased sources or limited expertise. This can happen because of personal and collective bias or because of limited or biased information used to predict the future. For example the scenario of the sustainable earth I described at the beginning is purposely very one sided, focusing only on “positive” developments; whereby likely many companies may not care or cannot care about sustainability. The same can account for people and different countries too. So the future of earth may as much be sustainable as much as it won’t or a mix of it. This is imporant to be aware of to understand possible bottlenecks such as the impact of poverty or inequalities that can serve as barrier for interests in sustainability as a whole.

Can bias be avoided?

I believe that bias cannot be avoided fully, because there most often is personal and collective bias, but bias can be reduced such as by fact-checking news- sources; by looking carefully validating and evaluating information (cross-referencing) as well as by checking into different developments. Of course one should do so in a particular lign of interest and boundaries (time/space/directions).

Can bias be encouraged?

One may also go with imagining any future such as done most often in science-fiction and here work fully with possible bias and hence, imaginary. Yet, the reality of how to get there, might be a bit vague, a bit too much of phantasma so that future predictions becomes quit difficult to predict with certainty or possibly unrealistic.

Questions? Let me know and also if you want more on that topic. Below you can find my summaries.

Recommended Resources:

Walsh, P. (2011). Intelligence and intelligence analysis. Willan.

Investopedia (2022). Forecasting. Retrievable here.

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Design and Self-Expression – Should the future of sustainable design be more vivid instead of less?

For the last year, I tried getting to know minimalistic culture. This worked out well, since I only had a backpack, when I moved into my new apartment. When I decorated my apartment, I took into account timeless and feeling based design. My idea was that, when I decorated it in such a way, I would never want a change. I tried to apply this concept to my interior style and clothing.

A year passed by and one evening I watched the movie “Cruella Deville”. The movie illustrated aspects of fashion, identity and self-expression. It also illustrated aspects of being who you really are as oppose to pretending and therefore live a life most true to yourself. The movie also illustrated the many facetts one has and it made me question, whether timeless design or feeling-based design can always stay the same, when feelings and facets change?

Life’s not just about smiles only and always, but about being who you want to be. There’s no wrong to who you are, what you feel, what you like and what you want to become or not. There’s only wrong in denying yourself to yourself. Embrace yourself and your individuality.

As the movie ended, I realized that by creating a minimalistic and “timless” interior and clothing design, a part of me was missing. The next day, I went to visit a local fleamarket and decided to re-clutter my home with colourfull designs, anything in which I could express my many facets and feelings. It was fun and it made me realize that by focusing on the most basic colors and designs over the last year, I had neglected other colours and therefore feelings that make my life unique to me .

Self-Expression

Can’t we always feel the same?

It sounds at odds to convince ourselves (in that case – myself) that feelings won’t change or that I’ll always feel a specific way, when I look at a certain design – either interior or my clothing. Although, I might associate my soft oranged toned couch to a specific feeling- I may not always feel that way. Because of that I may desire a new couch, with a new design and a color to match a different feeling – Feelings aren’t limited to a limited amount of colors and patterns.

Is the concept of timless design flawed?

To me timelessness implies that certain goods will still be “in fashion” in the next years to come and that I’ll always like the design. I think thats not possible, first of all because of we evolve and as we evolve a desire for change may happen and secondly, timeless design likely depends on trends.

It was the same for Ray Ban Aviators; “They had a medical use in the beginning, protecting your eyes from the sun, but they became the sunglasses for those who wanted to look like rock stars, when real rock stars actually started to use them for protection from the flashing cameras” (NotJustALabel, 2014)

How don’t know what design is timeless, because we don’t know the future.

How should design be promoted?

For the moment, design could be vivid, and encourage the individuality of consumers. Consumers – or at least me- want to express themselves in the moment and as they change. Not every day, but every once in a while.

Are changes in tastes and desire for new ways of self-expression unsustainable?

They may be unsustainable, if increased consumption ruin anyonse finances, or if products are purchased that have a high environmental or social footprint. They are also unsustainable if increased consumption levels take place because a look that is sold in advertisment is being mimicked as oppose to a look or desire for change that comes from within, or more specifically is true to the consumer self.

How can sustainable production and consumption processes support freedom of expression?

  • Create fixed product designs, of which parts can be changed or customized according to tastes and feelings.
  • Create materials to last
  • Create materials that can match a range of feelings
  • Be wild, rent, swap – but not too much!
  • (…)